Friday, 27 May 2011

Super League Betting Tips - Round 15 (Saturday-Monday)

Brown proving his England case with 8-11 Giants

GIANT INFLUENCE: Kevin Brown's form has been key for Huddersfield
Hull FC v Huddersfield 

Kevin Brown’s omission from England’s elite training squad back in February left rugby league fans up and down the country scratching their heads, and the Huddersfield captain has wasted little time in making a mockery of his surprise snub.

In selecting 32 players ahead of Brown, national boss Steve McNamara has instilled little confidence that he is the right man for the job.

Brown has been the best stand-off in Super League this season, homegrown or otherwise, and must be at a loss to explain McNamara’s decision after finishing last season in equally fine form.

The Wigan academy product has flourished over recent seasons under Giants coach Nathan Brown and has guided Huddersfield to second in the standings, level on points with leaders Warrington.

The Giants are 8-11 (Stan James) to win at the KC Stadium against a Hull (tomorrow, 12.30pm, Sky Sports 1) side who are showing signs of improvement – unbeaten in four now, including a 24-10 win at leaders Wolves.

For me, though, the Airliebirds are a top eight finish at best this season, while the Giants are genuine challengers to lift the title at Old Trafford.

With Brown and scrum-half Danny Brough pulling the strings in attack, teams are finding the Yorkshire side tough to contend with given their notoriously strong defensive effort.

In just 14 games, Hull have shipped almost 100 points more than their opponents and a win by 13+ points looks like the order of the day at 3-1 (SJ).

Brough is a good first try scorer option at 20-1 (Stan James), though popular prop Eorl Crabtree bagged his first two tries of the season in the Giants last outing – a 40-18 destruction of St Helens – and is a great outside bet at 40-1 with the same firm.

Crabtree may often start on the bench, but I expect a tight start and he is good value to make a decisive impact from the bench.

As for Hull, Kirk Yeaman has returned to his best form, topping the try standings with 15 scores and eight of those have come in his last four games. Back Yeaman to round things off with the final try at 12-1 with Stan James.

Winner: Huddersfield (8-11 STAN JAMES)
Score Tip: Giants by 13+ points (3-1 STAN JAMES)
First Tryscorer: Danny Brough (20-1 STAN JAMES) 


Wigan heading into Rover drive
STRIKE IT RICH: Pat Richards is a great first try scorer option at 9-1 (Hills)
Wigan v Hull KR 

Bank holiday Monday’s televised clash sees Wigan welcome Hull KR (6.30pm, Sky Sports 1) and I’ve got some bad news for Justin Morgan’s Rovers... you’re in for a long 80 minutes.

The Cherry and Whites stuttered into the Challenge Cup quarter-finals with a hard-fought win at 12-man Bradford last Sunday, but have been in empathic form in the recent rounds of Super League.

A 18-16 win at Hull KR in round 10 was the first of five successive wins that total a combined score of 184 points to 62.

Hull KR, meanwhile, have been dreadful on their travels, winning just once this term and that was in their season opener against Hull FC at a neutral Millenium Stadium.

A 26-24 loss at struggling Wakefield in their last away outing suggests the Robins could be on the good end of a hiding by the champions and I’m backing the hosts to secure victory by 41+ points at 8-1 (Betfred).

Points machine Pat Richards is 9-1 with Hills to bag the first try and, though, he may be a market leader with some bookies, there's a very good reason why. It's a decent price for a likely outcome.

In the pick of the none televised games this weekend, Bradford showed enough spirit in their 22-26 Cup defeat to Wigan to convince punters they can gain revenge over Salford at 4-11 with Stan James after the Reds thumped the Bulls 56-16 in round 10.

A win by 13+ points against a hit and miss Salford outfit is 11-8 (SJ).

Elsewhere, Castleford have gone off the boil and are without a win in five League games, but Harlequins are themselves winless in seven and the Tigers will get back on track at 1-4 (Coral) in a win by 1-12 points (21-10 bet365).

Winner: Wigan (1-7 BETFRED)
Score Tip:  Wigan by 41+ points (8-1 BETFRED)
First Tryscorer: Pat Richards (9-1 WILLIAM HILL)

Thursday, 26 May 2011

Super League Betting Tips - Round 15 (Friday)

14-1 McGuire will lead Rhinos' charge 

TRY MACHINE: Leeds' Danny McGuire remains a great first scorer option
Leeds v Warrington

I know, it has been away a while, but fear not, I've not been on the end of a Gareth Raynor right-hook, just a little snowed under at work.

This preview should hopefully herald a triumphant return and I'm backing a resurgent Leeds to beat Warrington – best priced at 9-5 with Stan James.

Six successive wins in all competitions has restored confidence among Rhinos fans after a shaky start, but they now sit just three points off Friday night's opponents and league leaders Warrington.

Wolves cruised to a 40-24 victory over Leeds in round four, but the Blue and Amber have steadily improved and are a much sterner test with England duo Jamie Peacock and Danny McGuire back in their ranks.

McGuire and full-back Brent Webb return from short injury stints on the sidelines to boost Leeds' support play artillery and you need look no further for a first try-scorer tip.

McGuire is always my first port of call in this market where Leeds are concerned and the 14-1 on offer from Hills should be gobbled up. His timing and anticipation, playing on the shoulder of his forwards remains of the highest order.

The loss of Keith Senior will be a blow to the Rhinos but, with Webb back at full-back, can Lee Smith return to form at centre? 

The former union convert was a stand-out performer before his brief flirtation with the other code, but has struggled to find his feet since...

Punters should take note that Wolves, despite their vast improvement under the guidance of Tony Smith, have failed to win at Headingley on their last four visits.

Leeds have been comprehensively beaten by Wolves, Huddersfield and St Helens so far this campaign, but now in better form, I rate Brian McDermott's team as a decent shout to get one over on his former Leeds mentor Smith.

The Rhinos, despite a few suggestions from the Sky Sports punditry team to the contrary, are far from a spent force, as shown in their 22-22 draw with champions Wigan.

Leeds should have ran out easy winners in that contest, but for some kamikaze defence, and now with Peacock and McGuire to lead the way, I think they'll find the inspiration needed to see off the Wire.

It will be a stern test of Leeds' credentials this season. Smith has Warrington running red-hot. Statistically, they have the top attack and defence in the league, scoring over 100 points more than their nearest rival, ironically Leeds.

Amazingly, Wolves have racked up 312 points and conceded only 14 in their last four games in all competitions. They are my tip to win the Grand Final, but they'll be a few defeats along the way. Leeds are due a result against one of the big guns.

That said, if Leeds offer up another lacklustre 80 minutes of defensive lapses, it would be no surprise to see Wolves run riot yet again. 

But I think Leeds will be switched on for this one. They need to make a statement. They must prove to themselves that they can still beat the best.

Leeds' defensive efforts this term would suggest a home win would need to be a close run affair and a 1-12 points success catches the eye at 10-3 with Coral. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Kevin Sinfield put over a one-pointer and a drop goal is 9-2 with Betfred.

Winner: Leeds (9-5 STAN JAMES)
Score Tip: Leeds by 1-12 points (10-3 CORAL)
First Tryscorer: Danny McGuire (14-1 WILLIAM HILL)