Friday, 11 March 2011

Super League Round 5 (Friday)

C-ASH IN: Salford's Ashley Gibson is 16-1 with Hills to bag the first try

Leeds v Salford 

The Rhinos' injury crisis deepens every passing week and Salford will have no better opportunity to grab what would be only their second ever win over the Blue and Amber in the Super League era.

The Reds are best priced at 5-1 with Boylesports and, in the words of Leeds coach Brian McDermott, must be "rubbing their hands together on two fronts.

"They'll be thinking our pack is a bit lightweight and, if you look at the footage from last week, they'll be thinking all they have to do is get near the try line and they'll come up with some joy."

True enough, Leeds' error prone efforts and lacklustre defence in their 40-24 defeat at Warrington, allied with that mounting injury list, suggests Salford are in with a shout at Headingley.

The Rhinos will line-up without a recognised prop, with Jamie Peacock, Ryan Bailey, Kylie Leuluai and Luke Burgess all sidelined, while Aussie recruit Ben Cross misses out through suspension.

Salford, meanwhile, have virtually no injury concerns and look destined to boss this game down the middle of the park. Ian Kirke and Jamie Jones-Buchanan will be pushed up into Leeds' front row and will need to play out of their skin if the hosts are to prevail.

Leeds clearly have enough creativity and pace in their backs to cause problems, but at a pathetic 1-7 with Hills, the Rhinos are best avoided. Salford are the only team worth backing in this contest and decent value at 5-1.

Winner: Salford (5-1 Boylesports)
Score Tip: Salford by 1-5 points (10-1 William Hill)
First Tryscorer: Ashley Gibson (16-1 William Hill)

St Helens v Harlequins 

Quins bright start was halted by Huddersfield last week and St Helens are 1-7 favourites with Betfred to inflict back-to-back defeats on Rob Powell's men.

The Londoners have only beaten Saints once in Super League and will struggle to contain a James Roby inspired St Helens at the Halton Stadium.

Roby is already flourishing thanks to the extra game time provided by Keiron Cunningham's retirement, with the hooker topping Super League's ball carrying metres table – 762 and counting.

The 25-year-old is also towards the top of the offloads standings and Roby's ability to drive Saints forward at pace will prove decisive in this contest.

Australian prop Josh Perry will be making his Saints' bow and will certainly give Quins plenty of food for thought in the middle of the park.

Winner: Saints to win (1-7 Betfred)
Score Tip: Saints by 21-55 points (15-2 Betfred)
First Tryscorer: Paul Wellens (14-1 William Hill) 



Wakefield v Warrington 

Wolves were rampant against Leeds last Saturday and I can't see anything other than a fourth straight win for Tony Smith's impressive team at 1-12 (Betfred).

Teenage centre Rhys Evans was the stand-out performer in that 40-24 defeat of Leeds, but there was plenty of Warrington players who caught the eye, particularly hooker Michael Monaghan.

It seems inevitable that the Wildcats will succumb to a third successive defeat. Heavy losses to Salford and Bradford, two teams who will certainly finish below Warrington in the standings, does not bode well.

Warrington are 15-2 with Betfred to win by more than 41 points and, sadly for Wakey fans, I wouldn't rule it out. The Wire are running red-hot right now.

Warrington's Chris Riley has scored tries in the Wolves' last three Super League meetings with Wakefield and he therefore is the obvious tip to open the scoring at 10-1 with sportingbet.

Winner: Warrington to win (1-12 Betfred)
Score Tip: Warrington by 41+ points (15-2 Betfred)
First Tryscorer: Chris Riley (10-1 sportingbet)