Challenge Cup Quarter-Finals

4-1 drop goal could clinch cup classic

LEE-DING THE WAY: Briers can inspire Warrington down back to Wembley

Back from a glorious two weeks in the Dominican and rugby league welcomes me home with a Saturday Challenge Cup blockbuster. The other three quarter-final contests promise to be tasty clashes as well.

Champions and Super League leaders Wigan Warriors are 7-2 with Unibet to win the Cup before coach Michael Maguire returns Down Under to link up with South Sydney, but will have to overcome holders Warrington Wolves - 12-5 Sportingbet to seal a hat-trick of Wembley triumphs.

The Cherry and Whites were my pre-season tip to top the regular season standings, but Wire to take the Grand Final honours at Old Trafford. This should be an almighty blood and thunder contest between the two best teams the country this campaign and it's a tough one to call for punters.

Wire have ran in 35 more tries than Wigan in Super League this term and Tony Smith's defence has been imposingly cruel, though the Warriors have shipped 10 less points themselves.

Both head into this fixture in fine form, Wigan with six straight wins and Warrington five. The bookies are, not too surprisingly, struggling to split the two - hosts Wire slight favourites at 17-20 (Sportingbet) and Warriors at 5-4 (Blue Square).

Wolves won 24-6 at Wigan in round seven and if they can put in a similar defensive effort will not be too far off the money.

I think home advantage and the return of Lee Briers could prove decisive for Warrington. Victor Chandler offer 4-1 on a drop-goal being scored in the 80 minutes and I think that's a great offer given this should be tight, the importance of the game and, of course, the presence of one-point specialist Briers.


Last year's finalists Leeds Rhinos head to the KC Stadium to face their tormentors in the 2005 showpiece, Hull FC.

Surely the Airliebirds will improve on their dire showing in the 20-0 defeat to the Rhinos last week, but Paddy Power offer 4-6 on another Leeds win and the gulf between both sides last week suggest that is the mosty sensible bet on offer.

Leeds are also way off the pace in Super League and the Cup offers what is realistically their only chance of silverware. Danny McGuire can lead the way at 12-1 with Stan James for the first try and a Rhinos win by 11-20 points is 10-3 with Paddy Power.

St Helens, winners in 2006, 2007 and 2008 will also realise that Wembley is also their most likely route to success this season and the visit of Hull KR is unlikely to halt their march into the semi-finals.

Winger Jamie Foster is in red-hot form right now, five tries in his last two games, and is the best bet in first try stakes - 8-1 with Hills, while Saints are bound to deliver with a handicap at -14 on offer at 10-11.

In the remaining quarter-final Castleford Tigers welcome Huddersfield Giants and this game is all about the hosts' in-form stand-off Rangi Chase - 16-1 with Sky Bet to grab the first try of the game.

The Giants 36-0 loss at Bradford last week was a real surprise and I think Cas can rub salt into the wounds at 7-4 with Totesport.

If you're chasing a treble, wins for Leeds, Castleford and Warrington combine at a price of 8.5-1.

Super League Betting Tips - Round 21 (Friday)

Wolves pack a punch at 10-11 handicap

WATCHFUL EYE: Tony Smith has transformed Wire into title contenders

Warrington Wolves v Huddersfield Giants

My pre-season tip for Grand Final glory Warrington are still looking red-hot and I think Huddersfield will get their fingers burnt on Friday night.

Wolves' 48-18 win at Castleford Tigers last week was their seventh win from eight in Super League and Tony Smith's table-toppers sit two points above the Giants.

Huddersfield, though, have beaten the Wire twice this campaign and will be keen to halt what is turning into a worrying record on the road.

Nathan Brown has seen his team lose four of their last five on their travels. A 40-12 hammering at champions Wigan suggested the growing belief that the Giants could mix it with the big boys may be a little premature, while losses at Wakefield and Crusaders should have set alarm bells ringing.

Wolves are 10-11 with Skybet with a handicap of minus 12 points and I think they are worth tucking into to claw back that deficit.

The return of Danny Brough, if he makes it, would be a major boost to the visitors – his kicking game has been integral to their attack this season and his combination with stand-off Kevin Brown would not look out of place on the international scene.

That said, Wolves have a terrific squad and, even without the experienced pairing of Adrian Morley and Lee Briers through injury, I expect them to have too much attacking intent for the Giants.

It's a real clash of styles with Huddersfield's game revolving around the boot of Brough and a solid pack, while Wolves love to off-load with a real emphasis on pace and support play. Huddersfield, notorious for  holding on in the tackle, will look to contain Wire's massive pack from getting their arms free and offloading, but it's easier said than done.

These are the top two try-scoring teams in Super League, but the very fact that Warrington have ran in 41 more tries than their nearest rivals, really does highlight their attacking prowess right now.

Richie Myler is a real talent playing on the shoulder and I'd back him to run in the first try at 12-1 with Hills.

SELECTIONS:
Warrington win -12 handicap (10-11 Skybet)
Richie Myler first try (12-1 William Hill)


Hull FC v Salford

Salford are hitting some great form with four wins in five, but I can see them coming unstuck against Hull FC.

This is another contest in which the handicap appeals - bet365 offering 4-5 on an Airliebirds success covering 10 points.

Hull had won three in a row before last week's defeat to St Helens and have steadily improved over recent months. Their convincing 32-16 win over the Reds in round 16 showed they have more than enough about them to condemn Salford to another defeat.

Tom Briscoe bagged two tries against Saints last week and is the man to back in the first scorer stakes – 10-1 with Betfred.

SELECTIONS:

Hull FC win -12 handicap (10-11 Skybet)

Tom Briscoe first try (10-1 Betfred)

Super League Betting Tips - Round 21 (Sat / Sun)

14-1 Webb will weave his magic

FLYING HIGH NOW: Brent Webb is back in great form for Leeds Rhinos

Catalans Dragons v Leeds Rhinos

LEEDS RHINOS are hardly flying right now, but the form of Kiwi full-back Brent Webb is certainly living up to his 'Superman' nickname. 

The 30-year-old has been dogged by injuries in recent seasons, but is returning to the kind of form that saw him clinch a Tri Nations’ winners medal with New Zealand back in 2005.

Webb bagged his fifth try of the season (he has 14 assists) in Leeds’ narrow 26-24 loss at Wigan last week and is a great price at 14-1 (Ladbrokes) to grab the first try of the game in France.

Brian McDermott’s Rhinos, for the second occassion this season, pushed the reigning champions all the way and I think Leeds are a decent shout to edge out an in-form Catalans side.

An aggregate score of 46-44 against the Warriors this season suggests Leeds can still mix it with the best when they raise their game and, four points behind fifth-placed Dragons, McDermott’s men need to hit form soon.

A top-four finish is looking incrasingly unlikely for the former three-in-a-row champions, but Leeds will be desperate to build up some form and momentum for the end of season play-offs.

Keeping Jamie Peacock and Danny McGuire fit is key to Leeds’ aspirations. They look, quite frankly, lost without them.

Both, however, should be in action tomorrow and the away win is available at 11-8 with Skybet.

Trent Robinson’s Dragons will run Leeds close – they have won five of their last six and beat Bradford last time out with only 12 men.

Prior to that run, though, Catalans were soundly beaten 30-6 at Headingley and Leeds have enough strike players to come out on top again.

Both these teams tend to look for tries with ball in hand and have made less attacking kicks than most of their counterparts.

This will suit Leeds most – they were dreadful under the high ball at Wigan.

But Webb, McGuire and Ben Jones-Bishop all looked dangerous against Wigan and that improved display should give the Rhinos a decisive boost for this game.

SELECTION:
Leeds to win (11-8 Skybet)

Best of the rest 

Castleford Tigers welcome the Bradford Bulls and are good value at 10-11 (Skybet) to return to winning ways.

Bradford hoped their win at Leeds would prove the catalyst for a change in fortunes, but defeat to 12-man Catalans shows they still have a long way to go.

Wigan should run out easy winners at Harlequins – a punt on a Cherry and Whites win with a handicap of minus 20 points catches the eye at 10-11 (Skybet).

Resurgent Hull KR, who have ran in a total of 104 points in their last two games, can stay on the
winning trail at bottom club Crusaders – 4-11 with Skybet.

Wakefield, thumped 70-14 by Rovers last week, will be on the end of another hiding – St Helens by 42 points or more is at 4-1 with Coral.