International Rugby League - Four Nations

Tomkins is key to breaking the Lock

Here we go again. Elland Road, England versus Australia – the nation’s rugby league fans hold their breath.

And, if that wasn’t enough, the 80 minutes will see Aussie captain Darren Lockyer bring down the curtain on arguably one of the greatest careers in the history of the game.

England, and before that Great Britain, have been lambs to slaughter far too often for the Kangaroos – with Lockyer their chief tormentor. Ladbrokes are expecting to witness another almighty chasm in class, with England at 4-1 and the tourists just 1-5.

However, and I’m honest enough to admit my heart may be ruling my head a little, I think Steve McNamara’s improving hosts have a realistic shout of causing an almighty upset.

I refer to the great Muhammad Ali – a father of many fabulous quotes – who once said: “He is who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life.” England will need to chance their arm to beat the Aussies, but for the first time in many a year, we have backs who the Green and Golds will be wary of.

Sam Tomkins has been the player of the tournament. Along with winger Ryan Hall, the full-back has excelled on the big stage. Hall has produced three breath-taking finishes to catch the eye, while Wigan’s talisman has been at his elusive and dangerous best.

Tomkins is England’s key man. England’s pack was formidable last week against the Kiwis, even better than in their 20-36 Wembley defeat to Australia. The likes of Jamie Peacock and Adrian Morley, though, have laid down a decent platform before – it just hasn’t always counted for much.

But with the likes of Tomkins, Tom Briscoe and Hall feeding off a quickly improving half-back partnership between Kevin Sinfield and Rangi Chase, you sense England have points in them.

Jack Reed and Kirk Yeaman are looking like England’s best centres since Keith Senior and Martin Gleeson, and all in all – if McNamara’s team match or better their defensive efforts against New Zealand, you sense a giant-killing could be on the cards.

Tomkins is a solid 5-4 to score anytime, while Hall looks a stand-out price to claim the final try of the game at 11-1 (both Skybet).

For those of you who are not buying into my wave of optimism triggered by last Saturday’s 28-6 success over the Kiwis, the Aussies are evens with Stan James to win by 13+ points.

All eyes will be on Lockyer – the master craftsman of creative rugby calling it a day. I just hope I’m watching the old warhorse Peacock finally lift some international silverware come the final whistle.

International Rugby League - Four Nations

Capital punishment for England at Wembley?

 

I always find it tough tipping a winner between the Aussies and England. My heart says we're in with a shout - my head tells me I should be worried.

The bookies rarely get their prices drastically wrong and Skybet's 1-6 on a win for the Kangaroos is the best you'll get on Tim Sheen's men.

Sportingbet have Steve McNamara's hosts as far out as 6-1 - surely we're got more chance than that. We all hope so.

Comfortable wins over France and Wales have done little to suggest - not that they ever could - that we're ready for the Green and Golds. The International Rugby League Awards in London on Wednesday night underlined the task facing England - not one of our boys made it into the team of the year.

But enough of the sulking... I think we can give the bookies and Australia a run for their money. Back at Wembley and with a partisan crowd behind them, I fancy England's pack - led by Jamie Peacock, Gareth Ellis and Adrian Morley - to provide a decent platform for the likes of Rangi Chase and Kevin Sinfield to cause our visitors a few problems.

England's strength lays down the middle. With the likes of James Graham, Ben Westwood and Chris Heightington also in attendance, I'm expecting an explosive start from the guys doing the hard yards.

In full-back Sam Tomkins we have an elusive attacking talent that the Aussies will be wary of. The Wigan favourite looks a bargain at 14-1 with Ladbrokes to grab the first try.

England, though, are still gelling and +16 point handicap at evens with bet365 looks the best way to cash in. A good display, though, and who knows what we could do come the final at Elland Road.

Greg Inglis is back for the Kangaroos, but should be a little rusty after so long on the sidelines. A breathtaking centre when in full flow - let's hope, for England's sake, he takes a while to get into his stride.

Full-back - and newly crowned player of the year - Billy Slater is 12-1 to grab a hat-trick and that's surely worth a flutter. The Melbourne ace always looks outstanding against England.

As for Wales versus New Zealand - the Kiwis by 51-60 points is 10-3 with Ladbrokes. It should be a massacre.

Super League Betting Tips - Round 21 (Friday)

Wolves pack a punch at 10-11 handicap

WATCHFUL EYE: Tony Smith has transformed Wire into title contenders

Warrington Wolves v Huddersfield Giants

My pre-season tip for Grand Final glory Warrington are still looking red-hot and I think Huddersfield will get their fingers burnt on Friday night.

Wolves' 48-18 win at Castleford Tigers last week was their seventh win from eight in Super League and Tony Smith's table-toppers sit two points above the Giants.

Huddersfield, though, have beaten the Wire twice this campaign and will be keen to halt what is turning into a worrying record on the road.

Nathan Brown has seen his team lose four of their last five on their travels. A 40-12 hammering at champions Wigan suggested the growing belief that the Giants could mix it with the big boys may be a little premature, while losses at Wakefield and Crusaders should have set alarm bells ringing.

Wolves are 10-11 with Skybet with a handicap of minus 12 points and I think they are worth tucking into to claw back that deficit.

The return of Danny Brough, if he makes it, would be a major boost to the visitors – his kicking game has been integral to their attack this season and his combination with stand-off Kevin Brown would not look out of place on the international scene.

That said, Wolves have a terrific squad and, even without the experienced pairing of Adrian Morley and Lee Briers through injury, I expect them to have too much attacking intent for the Giants.

It's a real clash of styles with Huddersfield's game revolving around the boot of Brough and a solid pack, while Wolves love to off-load with a real emphasis on pace and support play. Huddersfield, notorious for  holding on in the tackle, will look to contain Wire's massive pack from getting their arms free and offloading, but it's easier said than done.

These are the top two try-scoring teams in Super League, but the very fact that Warrington have ran in 41 more tries than their nearest rivals, really does highlight their attacking prowess right now.

Richie Myler is a real talent playing on the shoulder and I'd back him to run in the first try at 12-1 with Hills.

SELECTIONS:
Warrington win -12 handicap (10-11 Skybet)
Richie Myler first try (12-1 William Hill)


Hull FC v Salford

Salford are hitting some great form with four wins in five, but I can see them coming unstuck against Hull FC.

This is another contest in which the handicap appeals - bet365 offering 4-5 on an Airliebirds success covering 10 points.

Hull had won three in a row before last week's defeat to St Helens and have steadily improved over recent months. Their convincing 32-16 win over the Reds in round 16 showed they have more than enough about them to condemn Salford to another defeat.

Tom Briscoe bagged two tries against Saints last week and is the man to back in the first scorer stakes – 10-1 with Betfred.

SELECTIONS:

Hull FC win -12 handicap (10-11 Skybet)

Tom Briscoe first try (10-1 Betfred)

Super League Betting Tips - Round 19 (Friday)

Hungry Wolves will maul Saints

CASE FOR THE DEFENCE: Ben Westwood's tackling has been ferocious

Warrington v St Helens 

Wolves are aiming to seal their first ever Super League double over St Helens and I'm backing Tony Smith's men to do just that at 3-10 with Betfred.

Warrington have been sensational at times this season, top points scorers, best defence and looking very much Grand Final material.

Smith's table-toppers have led the standings for 10 of the 18 rounds this season and look too good for Saints right now.

Royce Simmons visitors may only be three points off the Wire, but punters should read little into that misleading statistic.

Take more notice of this – Wolves have racked up 191 more points than Saints so far this campaign and shipped 103 less points.

At times, a fierce defence and an expansive attack orchestrated by Lee Briers has seen Wolves looking almost unstoppable, while Saints showed very little against Wigan last week to suggest they are ready for this assignment.

With the exception of two defeats to Huddersfield, Wolves have been in great shape against Super League's big hitters this term.

Leeds have been hit for an aggregate score of 82-30, Wigan were humbled 24-6 on their own patch and Saints were also beaten on home turf, 25-18 back in round three.

Saints lacklustre 32-10 loss to the champions last week, allied with a run of four away games without a win, means their price of 11-4 (Boylesports) has little appeal.

Warrington's defence has been brutal this season. Ben Westwood's efforts in particular have hugely impressed, though it is very much a disciplined team unit.

In attack, the likes of Westood, Gareth Carvell, Paul Wood and Adrian Morley have laid the perfect platform for the likes of Brett Hodgson and Briers to weave their magic and, with two of the best centres around in Chris Bridge and Ryan Atkins, Wolves have plenty of ammunition out wide.

One major aspect to Wolves' play is the amount of offloads they are coming up with – 284 in total, that's 83 more than Saints.

It was a high-profile trait during Smith's reign at Leeds that the Rhinos topped the table for offloads and it is no surprise to see the Wire now succeeding with similar tactics.

On the evidence of what I've seen this season, I am left to think that the only question for punters is how many points Warrington will run out winners by.

Led by their two instrumental James's, Roby and Graham, Saints will no doubt put up a fight, but a Wolves win by 21-30 points is worth a punt at 5-1 with Paddy Power.

Warrington to win both halves also catches the eye at 11-8 with bet365.

I've always sang the praises of Bridge, a hugely talented and creative ball-runner, but he also knows the way to the line and he is available at 12-1 with Betfred to grab the first try.

Winner: Warrington (3-10 BETFRED)
Score Tip: Wolves by 21-30 points (5-1 PADDY P) / Wolves win both halves (11-8 BET365)
First Tryscorer: Chris Bridge (12-1 BETFRED) 

11-1 Jones-Bishop will lead Rhinos charge

RHINO RETURN: Jones-Bishop is a great prospect for the Blue and Amber

Leeds v Bradford 

These two teams headed into this corresponding fixture last season in similar predicaments and played out a thrilling 20-20 draw.

Once again Leeds are struggling to establish themselves among the top four, while Bradford, at this stage at least, look no better than 12 months ago.

Skybet offer 25-1 on another share of the spoils, but I think Leeds should have too much for their West Yorkshire rivals.

The Rhinos defence has been shoddy at best this term, but 20 points shipped in their last two games reflects a modicum of improvement in that area.

In attack, the Blue and Amber have run hot and cold, but even if the likes of Danny McGuire, Kevin Sinfield and Brent Webb are just luke warm, you sense the hosts should have too much quality for the Bulls.

Much will be made of Matt Diskin's return to Headingley and I'm confident the home faithful will give the hooker the reception he deserves after more than a decade with Leeds.

With that exception, though, I doubt Diskin's return will be an enjoyable one. Bradford have shown few signs of improvement this season and sneaking into the play-offs is surely coach Mick Potter's most realistic target.

Two wins in nine is hardly helping the Bull's cause and, short of ideas in attack, I think Leeds' defence will cope well enough, despite conceding a few points along the way.

Young winger Ben Jones-Bishop was on fire at the start of the season before injury struck and he can grab the first try of the game on his return to action – best priced 11-1 with Totesport.

McGuire was back on the scoresheet in last week's narrow 12-7 victory at Crusaders and is 12-1 with Betfred to run-in the last try.

Winner: Leeds (2-7 BETFRED)
Score Tip: Leeds by 16-20 points (11-2 BETFRED)
First Tryscorer: Ben Jones-Bishop (11-1 TOTESPORT)


Crusaders v Salford

Crusaders are looking to clinch a hat-trick of wins over the Reds this year and they look great value to do so at 10-11 with Betfred.

Iestyn Harris' Welsh outfit smashed Salford 42-12 in their Cardiff season opener and edged out the Reds 16-10 in round eight.

After a shock 18-16 win at leaders Warrington, Salford were brought back down to earth by Castleford last week and I think basement club Crusaders can continue their recent dominance over the Reds, having won the previous five League meetings.

Harris thought his team were unfortunate to come away from their last contest against the Rhinos empty handed, but he'll be in better spirits after this 80 minutes.

Aussie stand-off Michael Witt is key for Crusaders and he looks nicely priced for the opening score at 16-1 with Betfred.

Winner: Crusaders (10-11 BETFRED)
Score Tip: Crusaders by 1-12 points (2-1 BET365)
First Tryscorer: Michael Witt (16-1 BETFRED)