International Rugby League - Four Nations

Tomkins is key to breaking the Lock

Here we go again. Elland Road, England versus Australia – the nation’s rugby league fans hold their breath.

And, if that wasn’t enough, the 80 minutes will see Aussie captain Darren Lockyer bring down the curtain on arguably one of the greatest careers in the history of the game.

England, and before that Great Britain, have been lambs to slaughter far too often for the Kangaroos – with Lockyer their chief tormentor. Ladbrokes are expecting to witness another almighty chasm in class, with England at 4-1 and the tourists just 1-5.

However, and I’m honest enough to admit my heart may be ruling my head a little, I think Steve McNamara’s improving hosts have a realistic shout of causing an almighty upset.

I refer to the great Muhammad Ali – a father of many fabulous quotes – who once said: “He is who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life.” England will need to chance their arm to beat the Aussies, but for the first time in many a year, we have backs who the Green and Golds will be wary of.

Sam Tomkins has been the player of the tournament. Along with winger Ryan Hall, the full-back has excelled on the big stage. Hall has produced three breath-taking finishes to catch the eye, while Wigan’s talisman has been at his elusive and dangerous best.

Tomkins is England’s key man. England’s pack was formidable last week against the Kiwis, even better than in their 20-36 Wembley defeat to Australia. The likes of Jamie Peacock and Adrian Morley, though, have laid down a decent platform before – it just hasn’t always counted for much.

But with the likes of Tomkins, Tom Briscoe and Hall feeding off a quickly improving half-back partnership between Kevin Sinfield and Rangi Chase, you sense England have points in them.

Jack Reed and Kirk Yeaman are looking like England’s best centres since Keith Senior and Martin Gleeson, and all in all – if McNamara’s team match or better their defensive efforts against New Zealand, you sense a giant-killing could be on the cards.

Tomkins is a solid 5-4 to score anytime, while Hall looks a stand-out price to claim the final try of the game at 11-1 (both Skybet).

For those of you who are not buying into my wave of optimism triggered by last Saturday’s 28-6 success over the Kiwis, the Aussies are evens with Stan James to win by 13+ points.

All eyes will be on Lockyer – the master craftsman of creative rugby calling it a day. I just hope I’m watching the old warhorse Peacock finally lift some international silverware come the final whistle.

International Rugby League - Four Nations

It’s Hall or nothing for England now

There’s a famous saying that ‘good things come to those who wait’, but patience is a luxury England can ill-afford in Four Nations rugby league. It’s all or nothing against the Kiwis on Saturday.

Only a win will see Steve McNamara’s men through to the Elland Road final next weekend and – at 11-8 with Betfred – I’m backing our lads to secure another crack at the Aussies.

Last Saturday’s enthralling 20-36 Wembley defeat to the Kangaroos restored pride among English fans. There were moments when our lads seemed to have the beating of the Green and Golds, and boy did the partisan crowd lap it up.

The adrenaline fuelled buzz as Ryan Hall stormed over for a sensational second try was a rare moment for English rugby league fans. For a few glorious, couple of seconds, it was the men in white who looked like the masters of their trade.

Sure, reality bit back hard. The Aussies – with the aid of one or two questionable calls from the official - reiterated their clinical prowess with ball in hand. We were not far off, though.

McNamara’s men will need to up their game once again. International rugby league leaves little room for error. You either gel quickly, or you’re doomed. Last week’s showing would suggest England are making good progress. Bring on New Zealand.

Led by the irrepressible talents of Benji Marshall, the Four Nations and World Cup holders have a handy knack of raising their game when it really matters.

The bookies are finding it hard to choose. Coral have the Kiwis at 8-11, while England’s 11-8 represents a much shorter return than the widely available 5-1 on offer against Australia.

England’s forwards ran the show early on against Australia. With an intimidating and partisan crowd behind them at the KC Stadium, I’m expecting the hosts to come flying out of the traps once again.

Hall’s finishing prowess and his blossoming partnership with centre Jack Reed caught the eye last week. Back the Leeds winger to open the scoring with the first try – 12-1 with Blue Square.

All eyes, of course, will be on England’s Kiwi-born stand-off Rangi Chase – 25-1 to score the first try in this contest against his countrymen. His country of birth that is.

A sublime talent, capable of unlocking any defence – Super League’s Man of Steel has plenty in his locker. For me, though, Chase epitomises individual class. To flourish at international level, he needs to start appreciating the players around him a little more. The likes of Sam Tomkins and Kevin Sinfield should not be wondering what Chase is going to do next.

At club level, Chase runs the show for Castleford. With England, his combination play with Sinfield and when Tomkins comes into the attacking line, needs to be slicker. Fingers crossed.

New Zealand’s biggest threat comes at half-back –it’s the very reason Chase turned his back on Stephen Kearney’s team. Marshall, Kieran Foran, Isaac Luke, Thomas Leuluai, Nathan Fien and Shaun Johnson. His chances were limited.

England’s defence will have to be tighter. If it is, I’ve no doubt we’ve got the forward power and attacking artillery to see us home. An England win by 13+ points is 5-1 with Stan James.

Tom Briscoe was cruelly denied a Wembley try last week – the winger is 14-1 with Betfred to grab the final try of the game on what is a more familiar stomping ground.

Super League Betting Tips - Round 18 (Friday)

Wig wham bang, thank you Sam!

DEMOLITION SAM: Tomkins is a match-winner for the Cherry and Whites

St Helens v Wigan

IF the last two games between Wigan and Saints are anything to go by, punters can expect another closely fought thriller this evening.

Widnes’ Stobart Stadium hosts this season’s third installment of what is always an enthralling 80 minutes, as two of Super League’s fiercest rivals fight it out for local bragging rights once more.

Liam Farrell’s last-gasp try sealed a sensational 28-24 Wigan success in April, while Saints bagged a unlikely point with a stunning comeback to draw 16-16 in their Cardiff season opener.

So, with just four points to separate these two teams after 180 minutes of action this campaign and level on 23 points in the standings, taking a punt on another tight contest is surely the best way to cash in.

Victor Chanlder offer 18-1 on the draw which is well worth a flutter. These two sides are evenly matched, with four wins apiece from the last nine derby clashes.

There have been a remarkable seven stalemates already this term and, notably for punters, Wigan and Saints have featured in five of those.

That said, with so much kicking ability on show – Wigan’s Sam Tomkins and Pat Richards, and St Helens’ Jamie Foster and Lee Gasklell, to name a few, Betfred’s 5-1 on a drop goal being scored seems to be a stand-out bet and a great way for punters to cover their stake on the draw.

The after-effects of last Friday’s Origin International, allied to difficult playing conditions, were crucial as both last year’s Grand Finalists were held to surprise draws at Castleford and Bradford on Sunday.

Tomkins and George Carmont return for the Cherry and Whites, while Saints’ centre Francis Meli is back for the hosts, though hooker Scott Moore has been left out after he was arrested on suspicion of drink driving.

Tomkins could well be the key for the champions. His performances at full-back are currently in a league of their own.

If you take today’s opposite number Paul Wellens as a comparative benchmark, it’s clear to see that Tomkins gives Michael Maguire’s Warriors a so much more than any other No.1 in the business.

In 14 appearances, Tomkins has six more tries, two more assists, has made 894 metres, busted through 58 more tackles and made 15 extra clean breaks.

Wigan have a distinct advantage in this area. They have a brilliant full-back who also doubles up as a fantastic stand-off. Tomkins has made 87 kicks in general play this term, including two 40-20’s and his support-play ability to score tries, but his creativity to set-up others is unrivalled.

Tomkins is 19-2 with Betfred to grab the first try, while Wigan can edge this by 1-12 points – 15-8 with bet365.

Top Tips: Drop goal to be scored (5-1 BETFRED)
Winner: Wigan (9-5 STAN JAMES), but the draw (18-1 VC) is worth a little flutter
Score Tip: Wigan by 1-12 points (15-8 bet365)
First Tryscorer: Sam Tomkins (19-2 BETFRED) 

Super Sinfield will make his point

CAPTAIN MARVEL: Leeds' Kevin Sinfield is chasing a new landmark

Crusaders v Leeds 

Leeds captain Kevin Sinfield now needs just seven points to become the second highest scorer in Super League history and the Rhinos legend should have that accolade wrapped up after 80 minutes against rock-bottom Crusaders.

The Rhinos loose forward has racked up 2,370 points in his 14 seasons with the Blue and Amber and should edge past former Wigan captain Andy Farrell's 2,376 to move within touching distance of Paul Deacon with 2,395.

Leeds bounced back from defeats to Warrington and St Helens with an impressive demolition of Hull KR last week and are best priced at 1-5 with Stan James. Ryan Hall weighed in with three tries in that heavy 44-14 success over Rovers, but I'm backing second row forward Weller Hauraki to grab the first try against his old team.

Hauraki is 33-1 with Skybet and a far better prospect than that price reflects. He knows the way to the line and will be pumped up for what is his first outing against the Welsh.

Leeds really need to get their act together if they have serious ambitions of getting back into the top four and, while their defence has been hapless at times this campaign, they still have enough class in attack to win this by 21-25 points at 9-1 with Coral.

Winner: Leeds (1-5 STAN JAMES)
Score Tip: Leeds by 21-25 points (9-1 CORAL)
First Tryscorer: Weller Hauraki (33-1 SKYBET)

World Club Challenge

WORLD AT HIS FEET: Sam Tomkins can showcase his talents tonight

Wigan Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons

WIGAN WARRIORS are fighting to be crowned World Club champions against NRL winners St George Illawarra Dragons this weekend and Michael Maguire’s men will take some stopping at evens with William Hill.

After English dominance in this event for five successive years, Manly bucked that trend by beating Leeds in 2009 and Melbourne Storm repeated the trick at Elland Road 12 months ago. The strength of the NRL and Aussie stronghold on the international scene seals the Dragons as marginal favourites  for this contest – 4-5 with Hills.

However, there is plenty to suggest punters should be backing the Cherry and Whites. Firstly, home advantage, as always, goes to the English team and, in Wigan’s case, that means a sell-out partisan crowd at their very own DW Stadium.

Secondly, the Dragons, unlike Manly and Melbourne before them, have opted not to play a warm-up game on these shores – a fatal error in my book. Wigan will hit the ground battle hardened after a full pre-season and two Super League matches already under their belts.

In contrast, the NRL has yet to kick-off and it is a serious lack of respect on Illwarra’s part to head into this clash without any match preparation.

St George’s legendary coach Wayne Bennett has flown home on compassionate grounds, which is a massive blow to the visitors.

Maguire’s men blew a 16-0 lead to draw with St Helens in their season opener, but cut through the Bulls with ominous ease at Odsal last week and are just too good to turn down at Hills’ double-your-money price.

St George’s man to watch out for is 23-year-old full-back Darius Boyd. A prodigious talent, equally skilled on the wing or at centre, Boyd adds a creative touch to what is largely a well disciplined and workmanlike outfit.

His opposite number, Sam Tomkins, is the best talent in the British game and I expect Super League’s young player of the year to deliver.

A Grand Final try suggests he is the man for the big occassion and, at 12-1 (Hills) for the first try, his timely support play and notorious sidestep could well reward punters.

Winner: Wigan (Evens William Hill)
Score Tip: Wigan to win by 13+ points (4-1 bet365)
First Tryscorer: Sam Tomkins (12-1 William Hill)

Super League Betting Tips - Round 1 (Saturday)

DEMOLITION DERBY: Saints and Wigan clash in Saturday's final contest

 Super League Betting Tips - Round 1

Huddersfield v Warrington

Kicking off Millenium Magic is a repeat of the 2009 Challenge Cup Final and, after backing Warrington to win this year's Super League Grand Final, it will come as no surprise to learn that I'm tipping the same outcome as in that Wembley showpiece.

Mind you, I'm expecting a big year from the Giants and expect stand-off Kevin Brown, fantastic over the last two seasons, to push on even further now he has replaced Brett Hodgson as captain.

Coach Nathan Brown has also brought in Australian forward Luke O'Donnell, who will have a major impact, but it's Warrington who are the team to challenge Wigan in 2011.

Hodgson will prove influential, along with the likes of Adrian Morley and Ben Westwood, while the form of centre Ryan Atkins will again catch the eye. Joel Monaghan should be a real sensation in Super League and he's a great shout to bag the first try at 10-1 with William Hill.

Winner: Warrington (4-7 Betfred)
Score Tip: Wolves by 13+ points (2-1 Blue Square)
First Tryscorer: Joel Monaghan (10-1 William Hill)

Catalans v Harlequins

It's exciting times for Catalans under new coach Trent Robinson who has recruited well and I fancy the French will make a winning start to the new season.

Rob Powell is the youngest, most inexperienced coach in the competition and, if that wasn't enough, he has the weakest squad to boot. It could be a baptism of fire for Powell in Cardiff.

The likes of Scott Dureau, Steve Menzies and Ian Henderson will make Catalans a tougher force than last time out and they'll get off to a flyer.

Winner: Catalans (8-15 Betfred)
Score Tip: Catalans by 6-10 points (5-1 Coral)
First Tryscorer: Steve Menzies (20-1 Betfred)

Castleford v Wakefield

The departure of talented young duo Michael Shenton and Joe Westerman is a major blow to Castleford, though Richard Mathers, returning favourite Danny Orr and Saints pair Nick Fozzard and Jacob Emmitt will ensure a solid spine to the side.

Stand-off Rangi Chase will again be the man to watch and he could have a field day this weekend against a Wildcats outfit that has been in turmoil off the field.

Wakefield's small squad will need all the experience of coach John Kear this term after a distinct lack of high-profile signings due to now re-solved financial issues, but I fear it could be a testing first 80 minutes in what promises to be a tough season for the Wildcats.

Winner: Castleford (2-5 Betfred)
Score Tip: Castleford by 11-15 points (6-1 Paddy Power)
First Tryscorer: Richard Mathers (18-1 Sportingbet)

St Helens v Wigan

A thrilling finale to the opening day of Super League XVI sees a repeat of last year's Grand Final and, I'm sorry Saints fans, it's hard to envisage a different outcome.

Stuart Fielden, Pat Richards and Brett Finch are out injured, but the Cherry and Whites are still bursting with quality.

The addition of Ryan Hoffman ensures the Warriors have the best back-row in the competition, while Sam Tomkins heads a list of young talent that many suspect will see another prolonged period of Wigan dominance.

New Saints coach Royce Simmons, though, has a squad that will be competing for a sixth successive Grand Final showing and I'm expecting big things from centre Michael Shenton.

You can't bet against the champions right now though and that's where my money will be going.

Winner: Wigan (8-15 William Hill)
Score Tip: Wigan by 13+ points (21-10 Blue Square)
First Tryscorer: Michael Shenton (14-1 Stan James)

Super League Top Try Scorer Betting

MY OH MY: Wolves' Richie Myler is a stunning 35-1 with Paddy Power

LEEDS RHINOS' Ryan Hall heads the betting to top the Super League try chart in 2011 but, at 10-1 with Betfred and as short as 8-1 with Stan James, I think there’s better value to be had.

Hall is an accomplished finisher. He was fifth in the standings with 23 tries last year, 12 months after leading the way with 28 scores in 2009. The Leeds ace is a physically imposing winger with speed to burn and I fully expect Hall to be fighting it out to be top dog once again. But who will he be up against?

Well, there are some eye-catching odds in this market and none more so than St Helens' Kyle Eastmond. The scrum-half ran in 15 tries in 19 games for Saints last season and, should he avoid the injuries that have so far dogged his early development, the 25-1 Victor Chandler have priced up certainly catches the eye. However, with talk of an impending switch to union still doing the rounds, the St Helens man is best avoided.

Warrington's Joel Monaghan will have to endure plenty of stick from the terraces this campaign after his controversial exit from the NRL, but the bookies would be barking mad to dismiss the former Canberra centre and Hills clearly think the Wolves recruit is up to the task – 12-1 to top the charts. 

Team-mate Chris Riley is also high up in the betting at 16-1 (Betfred), but I rather fancy Monaghan could outscore the 22-year-old. He is quality player who should have few problems settling it at Wolves.

Man of Steel Pat Richards clinched this market last year with 29 tries, but missing through injury early on, Wigan's Darrell Goulding is perhaps a better Cherry and Whites prospect, best priced at 14-1 with Victor Chandler. Richards, though, is still a threat according to Hills - 18-1 to retain his place at the top of the standings.

Sam Tomkins is 25-1 with Betfred and looked a deadly finisher from full-back last term. That notorious turn of pace and side-step should see England's bright young hope to the try line on a regular basis and Tomkins is well worth an each-way flutter at that price.

Another Warriors man, Amos Roberts, is 16-1 with Stan James, but is unlikely to hit the ground running after a long injury lay-off last season. 

Ade Gardner (20-1 Hills) used to top this betting market, but is merely a finisher in my eyes and unlikely to rack up any tries through his own hard work. With just 14 tries last year, I'd give Gardner the swerve and think James Roby - an astonishing 80-1 with bet365 - could be the darkhorse in this market.

Roby managed 13 tries last term with limited game time due to his regular interchange with Kieron Cunningham, but with more minutes on the field, Roby could turn out to be a very profitable each-way option.

Huddersfield pair Leroy Cudjoe (20-1 Blue Square) and David Hodgson (25-1 Blue Square) are also contenders, while Hull KR's Peter Fox and cross-city rival Tom Briscoe (both 20-1 Coral) will also have their backers.

Elsewhere, Danny McGuire's form last year would have made him a stand-out bet in this market and, even 11 weeks away from fitness, still has the bookies running a little scared at 20-1 (various).

For me though, Richie Myler sparkles with value at 35-1 with Paddy Power. The scrum-half bagged 15 tries last season and has a support game that boss Tony Smith should ensure is fully utilised at Warrington as Myler shows his class after a testing end to 2010. 

TOP TRYSCORER SELECTIONS:

Sam Tomkins - Each way (1/4) - 25-1 Betfred

James Roby - Each way (1/4) - 80-1 bet365

Richie Myler - Outright - 35-1 Paddy Power