Super League Betting Tips - Round 18 (Friday)

Wig wham bang, thank you Sam!

DEMOLITION SAM: Tomkins is a match-winner for the Cherry and Whites

St Helens v Wigan

IF the last two games between Wigan and Saints are anything to go by, punters can expect another closely fought thriller this evening.

Widnes’ Stobart Stadium hosts this season’s third installment of what is always an enthralling 80 minutes, as two of Super League’s fiercest rivals fight it out for local bragging rights once more.

Liam Farrell’s last-gasp try sealed a sensational 28-24 Wigan success in April, while Saints bagged a unlikely point with a stunning comeback to draw 16-16 in their Cardiff season opener.

So, with just four points to separate these two teams after 180 minutes of action this campaign and level on 23 points in the standings, taking a punt on another tight contest is surely the best way to cash in.

Victor Chanlder offer 18-1 on the draw which is well worth a flutter. These two sides are evenly matched, with four wins apiece from the last nine derby clashes.

There have been a remarkable seven stalemates already this term and, notably for punters, Wigan and Saints have featured in five of those.

That said, with so much kicking ability on show – Wigan’s Sam Tomkins and Pat Richards, and St Helens’ Jamie Foster and Lee Gasklell, to name a few, Betfred’s 5-1 on a drop goal being scored seems to be a stand-out bet and a great way for punters to cover their stake on the draw.

The after-effects of last Friday’s Origin International, allied to difficult playing conditions, were crucial as both last year’s Grand Finalists were held to surprise draws at Castleford and Bradford on Sunday.

Tomkins and George Carmont return for the Cherry and Whites, while Saints’ centre Francis Meli is back for the hosts, though hooker Scott Moore has been left out after he was arrested on suspicion of drink driving.

Tomkins could well be the key for the champions. His performances at full-back are currently in a league of their own.

If you take today’s opposite number Paul Wellens as a comparative benchmark, it’s clear to see that Tomkins gives Michael Maguire’s Warriors a so much more than any other No.1 in the business.

In 14 appearances, Tomkins has six more tries, two more assists, has made 894 metres, busted through 58 more tackles and made 15 extra clean breaks.

Wigan have a distinct advantage in this area. They have a brilliant full-back who also doubles up as a fantastic stand-off. Tomkins has made 87 kicks in general play this term, including two 40-20’s and his support-play ability to score tries, but his creativity to set-up others is unrivalled.

Tomkins is 19-2 with Betfred to grab the first try, while Wigan can edge this by 1-12 points – 15-8 with bet365.

Top Tips: Drop goal to be scored (5-1 BETFRED)
Winner: Wigan (9-5 STAN JAMES), but the draw (18-1 VC) is worth a little flutter
Score Tip: Wigan by 1-12 points (15-8 bet365)
First Tryscorer: Sam Tomkins (19-2 BETFRED) 

Super Sinfield will make his point

CAPTAIN MARVEL: Leeds' Kevin Sinfield is chasing a new landmark

Crusaders v Leeds 

Leeds captain Kevin Sinfield now needs just seven points to become the second highest scorer in Super League history and the Rhinos legend should have that accolade wrapped up after 80 minutes against rock-bottom Crusaders.

The Rhinos loose forward has racked up 2,370 points in his 14 seasons with the Blue and Amber and should edge past former Wigan captain Andy Farrell's 2,376 to move within touching distance of Paul Deacon with 2,395.

Leeds bounced back from defeats to Warrington and St Helens with an impressive demolition of Hull KR last week and are best priced at 1-5 with Stan James. Ryan Hall weighed in with three tries in that heavy 44-14 success over Rovers, but I'm backing second row forward Weller Hauraki to grab the first try against his old team.

Hauraki is 33-1 with Skybet and a far better prospect than that price reflects. He knows the way to the line and will be pumped up for what is his first outing against the Welsh.

Leeds really need to get their act together if they have serious ambitions of getting back into the top four and, while their defence has been hapless at times this campaign, they still have enough class in attack to win this by 21-25 points at 9-1 with Coral.

Winner: Leeds (1-5 STAN JAMES)
Score Tip: Leeds by 21-25 points (9-1 CORAL)
First Tryscorer: Weller Hauraki (33-1 SKYBET)

Super League Round 7 (Saturday and Sunday)

LAND OF THE GIANTS: Willie Mason will line-up against Eorl Crabtree

Hull KR v Huddersfield Giants (Saturday)

BIG Willie Mason, as his name suggests, rarely gives little away in size but Huddersfield Giants’ Eorl Crabtree provides one such anomaly.

The Yorkshire club’s popular prop, nephew of legendary professional wrestler Shirley “Big Daddy” Crabtree, stands two inches taller than his Austrlian counterpart at 6ft 6in and looks set to play his part in an almighty clash of the titans down the middle of the park.

Mason himself is anything but popular on these shores after flooring Stuart Fielden and Sean Long in off-the-ball incidents during Great Britain’s 2006 Tri-Nations campaign.

The 30-year-old will no doubt be a target for some of Super League’s more volatile characters and the Giants’ mean forward line will provide Mason with his sternest test in England to date.

Huddersfield, who have enjoyed one of the top defensive records over the last few years in Super League, have shipped just 92 points in six games.

TALL ORDER: Can Crabtree inspire Huddersfield to beat Hull KR?

With Rovers missing their creative lynchpin, half-back Michael Dobson, the Giants look outstanding value at 8-13 with Betfred to outscore their hosts.

Dobson’s boot is integral to Rovers’ gameplan and I expect his 10-week absence due to ankle surgery to hit the Robins hard.

Mason’s arrival is a boost, but four defeats from their opening six contests suggests coach Justin Morgan needs his talisman back sooner, rather than later.

Without Dobson’s kicking game, the emphasis is on Rovers’ pack to make up the hard yards and they are struggling.

And, while it is the clash of the giants in Mason and Crabtree that provides a great sub-plot to this clash, it is Huddersfield’s hooker Luke Robinson and stand-off Kevin Brown that will prove decisive.

Robinson made a try-scoring return from injury last week and his lively attacking play makes him an eye-catching 20-1 with Hills to grab the first try.

Nathan Brown’s men had enough possession and territory to bag the points in last week’s 20-6 defeat to Wigan, but made some poor final decisions against the competition’s best defence.

I can’t see that happening twice and, thanks to their solid defence, the Giants can clinch this by 13+ points at 7-4 with Blue Square.

Winner: Giants to win (8-13 Betfred)
Score Tip: Giants by 13+ points (7-4 Blue Square)
First Tryscorer: Luke Robinson (20-1 William Hill)


Catalans v Salford (Saturday)

IN today’s other contest, Catalans can clinch two points against Salford in France. The Dragons were 32-22 victors at Crusaders last time out and were marginally defeated by Saints in their last home
fixture.

Trent Robinson’s men (1-3 Betfred) face a tough task against a Salford side who romped past Hull KR last week, but the City Reds have been battered in two of their three away games and look a little vulnerable on the road.

Australian Scott Dureau has seven tries to his name already and is sparkling with value at 25-1 (Hills) to open the scoring.

Winner: Catalans to win (1-3 Betfred)
Score Tip: Catalans by 1-12 points (12-5 Paddy Power)
First Tryscorer: Scott Dureau (25-1 William Hill)


Wakefield Wildcats v Leeds Rhinos (Sunday)

Tomorrow’s action should see Leeds Rhinos – desperate to entertain this season with a staggering 113 offloads already – return to winning ways at Wakefield.

The Blue and Amber enjoyed enough possession and territory to beat Saints with some ease last week, but coach Brian McDemott’s over emphasis on entertaining rugby is costing Leeds points.

Too many knock-ons and dropped ball are hurting Leeds right now but, with a little fine tuning, this approach may deliver. On paper, the Rhinos, despite a bulky injury list, should edge this with few problems at 2-11 with Betfred.

Young centre Kallum Watkins is a real talent and nicely priced to grab the first try at 12-1 with Hills.

Winner: Leeds to win (2-11 Betfred)
Score Tip: Leeds by 16-20 points (11-2 Stan James)
First Tryscorer: Kallum Watkins (12-1 William Hill)


Castleford v Crusaders (Sunday)

Early pace-setters Castleford can return to winning ways against a Crusaders outfit who have lost their last five games.

Jarrod Sammut has run in six tries for the Welsh side, but the Tigers have been very impressive at The Coliseum and I expect them to bag another two points – 1-4 with Hills.

Ranghi Chase has been running the show for Terry Matterson’s men, but I’m backing full-back Richie Mathers to grab his first Tigers try at 22-1 (Betfred).

Winner: Castleford to win (1-4 William Hill)
Score Tip: Tigers by 21-25 points (9-1 William Hill)
First Tryscorer: Ritchie Mathers (22-1 Betfred)


Harlequins v Hull FC (Sunday)

In this weekend’s final match, home advantage should prove enough for Harlequins to edge out a out-of-sorts Hull FC to increase the pressure on coach Richard Agar (11-8 Sky Bet).

Quins were spanked last time out by Wolves, so will be up for this one, while the Airlie Birds have looked clueless at times this campaign.

Winner: Quins to win (11-8 Sky Bet)
Score Tip: Quins by 1-12 points (15-8 bet365)
First Tryscorer: Luke Dorn (10-1 William Hill)

Super League Round 6 (Friday)

LUKE-ING UP: Luke Robinson is integral to Huddersfield Giants' challenge

Huddersfield v Wigan 

LEAGUE leaders Huddersfield will underline their Grand Final hopes tonight by becoming the first team to beat champions Wigan.

Nathan Brown’s Giants have stormed to four wins from their opening five fixtures, including a 28-18 opening day success over Challenge Cup holders – and my tip to be crowned winners at Old Trafford – Warrington.

The form of stand-off Kevin Brown, the Giants’ newly-appointed captain, has been inspirational, but the truth is that Huddersfield have been knocking on the door for a few years now.

Australian coach Brown has instilled a fantastic, disciplined defensive side to the Giants game, while the likes of the talismanic Brown, Luke Robinson and Danny Brough ensure the League leaders have plenty of creative juices pumping through their veins.

The Giants, who showed all their attacking prowess in a 50-16 mauling of Bradford last week, are 8-13 with Betfred to beat Michael Maguire’s Cherry and Whites, and I rate that as a stunning price.

The Warriors will be missing two of their top performers in brothers Sam and Joel Tomkins through suspension, while Paul Deacon, Pat Richards and Brett Finch are out injured.

The future of missing centre Martin Gleeson is also up in the air and a home win by 13+ points (2-1 Stan James) certainly catches the eye.

This contest does, however, showcase two of the League’s best defences and a Giants’ margin of victory by 6-10 points could prove a much safer option for punters (13-2 Betfred).

As for the first try market, Danny Brough has two tries to his name already and looks a class act now he has had time to settle in at one of Super League’s big contenders. Brough is 16-1 across the board, while the equally influential Brown is a stand-out 16-1 (Skybet) to round off the scoring with the final try of the game.

Winner: Giants (8-13 Betfred)
First Tryscorer: Danny Brough (16-1 Skybet)


Crusaders v Catalans

Crusaders coach Iestyn Harris got off to flyer with a

42-12 win over Salford in Cardiff, but is now looking to end a run of four successive defeats.

Notoriously poor travellers Catalans should provide the former Great Britain stand-off with the perfect opportunity to set that record straight and the Welsh are good value for the two points at 10-11 with Stan James.

Captain Jack Sparrow look-alike Jarrod Sammut has started the season in fine form, with five tries to his name already, and is 16-1 (Skybet) to grab the first four-pointer of the contest.


Winner: Crusaders (10-11 Stan James)
First Tryscorer: Jarrod Sammut (16-1 Skybet)


Hull FC v Wakefield

THE Airlie Birds came mightily close to toppling Wigan last week, but will bag their second win of the campaign against the Wildcats (1-20 Hills).

A 42-18 thumping of Catalans in their last outing at the KC Stadium suggests Hull should have few problems seeing off John Kear’s rock-bottom side.

Wakey have lost four from five this term and are struggling to get over the whitewash – just 88 points to their name thus far. Nigerian-born Will Sharp has notched up four tries already this season, and can get the hosts up and running with the first tonight at 8-1 with Skybet.

Winner: Hull FC (1-20 Hills)
First Tryscorer: Will Sharp (8-1 Skybet)


Salford v Hull KR

AUSTRALIAN man-mountain Willie Mason made a terrific debut in Rovers’ 40-22 win over Crusaders last week and can inspire Justin Morgan’s men to a third win of the campaign.

Mason was at his tackle-busting and offloading best last week, while Salford, who have shipped more points than any other team, were getting spanked by an injury-hit Leeds Rhinos.

Back Ben Galea to get the first try (16-1 Skybet) in a Robins win (2-5 Betfred).

Winner: Hull KR (2-5 Betfred)
First Tryscorer: Ben Galea (16-1 Skybet)

Super League Round 4 (Friday)

A GIANT PRICE: Kevin Brown is a great shout to bag the first try at 20-1

It's been a tough start to my debut rugby league tipping blog, thanks largely due to busy recruiting in the off-season and some surprising results. But having now seen all the contenders in action a few times, hopefully you can all cash in on some decent price winners...

Harlequins v Huddersfield (Friday)

Did any of you fancy Harlequins to top the standings after three games? No, me neither, but I’m backing Huddersfield to bring a touch of normality to Super League XVI on Friday night.

Quins stunned Leeds last week with a well-deserved 36-26 success at Headingley, but it’s worth pointing out that the Rhinos were missing some key names.

Narrow wins over Catalans and Crusaders proceeded that win in West Yorkshire, but 2-5 (Betfred) Huddersfield will provide young Quins coach Rob Powell with his sternest test to date.

Nathan Brown’s Giants boast a clean bill of health and, with the exception of a below-par effort at Castleford, have looked very impressive in wins over Hull FC (20-10) and Warrington (28-18).

Stand-off Kevin Brown just keeps on improving and was the catalyst for all the Giants best attacking moves against the Airlie Birds last week. Back Huddersfield’s captain to lead by example by grabbing the first try as Quins finally taste defeat.

Winner: Huddersfield to win (2-5 Betfred)
Score Tip: Giants to win by 13+ points (7-4 Blue Square)
First Tryscorer: Kevin Brown (20-1 Skybet)

Hull FC v Crusaders (Friday)

Three successive defeats to open the campaign has intensified the pressure on Hull coach Richard Agar and I think this clash is a tough one to call.

I’ve seen enough from Iestyn Harris’ team to suggest the Welsh will be competitive this season and Crusaders are an eye-catching price at 9-4 with Victor Chandler.

Sean Long’s long standing Achilles’ injury rules out the veteran scrum-half and though Australian’s Craig Fitzgibbon and Mark O’Meley bring plenty of power down the middle, I think Hull really are lacking a creative spark right now.

At a short 2-5 (Stan James), the Airlie Birds offer little value and I certainly rate Crusaders as a decent outside bet at 9-4 (Stan James). If you do fancy Hull to finally deliver, then I’d definitely advise taking a punt on a small margin of victory to find a decent price - Stan James offer 13-2 on a Hull win by 1-5 points.

Winner: Crusaders to win (9-4 Stan James)
Score Tip: Back up bet of Hull to win by 1-5 points (13-2 Stan James)
First Tryscorer: Tom Briscoe (10-1 William Hill)

Salford v Wigan (Friday)

Shaun McRae has been given a month's leave from Salford on health grounds and that's definitely a smart move, because a visit from the champions is not what they need at The Willows right now.

Seriously though, McRae should have taken leave on health grounds years ago. Perhaps ITV's Biggest Loser has finally inspired Sky Sports' fattest pundit into action.

I doubt McRae's absence will have little effect on proceedings in this one though, where Wigan, despite a few weary legs no doubt from their tussle with St George, are easy winners at 1-5 with Hills.

Amos Roberts was the best player in Super League before injury struck last term and now, with some decent game time under his belt, he can run riot against a Salford side already thrashed by heavy scores against Crusaders and Saints this campaign. Roberts is 11-1 with sportingbet to grab the opening try.

The Reds win at Wakey last week will count for little against the Cherry and Whites. A Wigan win by 41+ points at 10-1 with Betfred is not out of the question.

Winner: Wigan to win (1-5 William Hill)
Score Tip: Wigan to win by 41+ points (10-1 Betfred)
First Tryscorer: Amos Roberts (11-1 sportingbet)

Super League Betting Tips - Round 1 (Sunday)

DISK-O TIME: Can new Bulls hooker Matt Diskin get Bradford ticking over?

 Crusaders v Salford

A crack at the Super League play-offs is not out of the question for Salford this campaign after Shaun McRae brought in a wealth of experienced players in the off-season.

The likes of Stephen Wild, Chris Nero, Vinnie Anderson, Sean Gleeson, Iafeta Paleassina and Phil Bailey will ensure McRae’s men are much more competitive than last time out and I’m backing Salford to get off to a flyer by bagging the points against Crusaders.

Iestyn Harris beings his Super League coaching career with a four point deficit due to the Crusaders going into administration but, in Jarrod Sammut, he has an exciting talent who can inspire the Welsh to some surprise victories.

Winner: Salford (8-13 Stan James)
Score Tip: Salford by 1-12 points (15-8 Blue Square)
First Tryscorer: Ashley Gibson (14-1 William Hill)

Bradford v Leeds

Mick Potter has included all 10 of his new signings for the derby with Leeds and there is certainly a few interesting sub-plots to this West Yorkshire clash.

Former Rhinos stalwarts Chev Walker and Matt Diskin will line-up for the Bulls, while many are interested to see how Leeds’ new coaching duo of former Bradford men Brian McDermott and James Lowes will get on.

And then there’s also the small matter of official Steve Ganson taking charge after the chaos he caused with Leeds last-gasp win at this very ground in 2007!

Potter has, perhaps wisely, recruited players with something to prove, but it’s hard to see Bradford’s new team clicking together instantly and, though Leeds are missing Jamie Peacock and Danny McGuire, they still boast an established squad with plenty of quality.

McDermott has expressed his desire to see his Leeds team adopt an exciting brand of rugby league this term and where better to indulge in that expansive style of play than on Cardiff’s giant pitch.

Winner: Leeds (2-5 William Hill)
Score Tip: Leeds by 13+ points (17-10 bet365)
First Tryscorer: Weller Hauraki (28-1 Sportingbet)

Hull FC v Hull KR

What a way to end the opening weekend as the Airlie Birds and Robins tear into each other in Cardiff!

Two evenly matched sides in my eyes after watching both Super League derbies between these two in 2010 but, with Sean Long fit and raring to go, I’m going to side with Hull FC for this one.

Loose-forward Joe Westerman is a hugely talented player who may shine further in a new environment, while visa problems rob opponents Hull KR of their major off-season signing, Willie Mason.

Winner: Hull FC (Evens Stan James)
Score Tip: Hull FC by 1-5 points (5-1 Stan James)
First Tryscorer: Kirk Yeaman (16-1 Stan James)